Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Draft lottery for Timberwolves


So, season is reaching it's end(at least for us), and we should point all eyes towards Draft lottery, and scouting prospects from college. Let's analyse our chaces for #1 or even top3 pick.
In last couple of weeks, it has been obvious that Miami is tanking. Wade has gone to surgery, Matrix is not playing also, so Ricky Davis has become their team leader. LOL! They've now lost 8 in a row, so they've almost 100% team with the worst record at the end of the season. Even if they win a couple of matches... No, no way they will win more than 3 or 4 games 'till the end of season... :)
There are 3 teams that are candidates for 2nd worst record. We're in this group... Other two teams are Grizzlies and Sonics. These two teams are not tanking. They actually suck. Memphis with Milicic, Collins and one and only Kwame at frontcourt are hilarious. And they have Iavaroni as head coach. LOOOL. Silliest team of the league. Sonics are too young, with two possible good players but they suck big time atm. Than there are we. Pretty solid at the moment, with really easy, easy schedule, I'm afraid that we'll finish as 4th worst in league. Hope I'm wrong about this. :( We have three games against Memphis and one against Bobcats, Knicks and Bucks. All in Target Centre, so this games are very winnable. With 4 wins out of these games we would even be above the Knicks, but let's hope that they will win some games too.
Let's supose we finish as 4th worst in league. Here is the table of ping-pong balls/chances for lottery:
TEAM 1000 PICK 1 PICK 2 PICK 3
Team 1 250 25.00% 21.51% 17.77%
Team 2 199 19.90% 18.81% 17.12%
Team 3 156 15.60% 15.74% 15.59%
Team 4 119 11.90% 12.60% 13.30%
Team 5 88 8.80% 9.66% 10.68%
Team 6 63 6.30% 7.10% 8.12%
Team 7 43 4.30% 4.94% 5.79%
Team 8 28 2.80% 3.26% 3.89%
Team 9 17 1.70% 2.00% 2.41%
Team 10 11 1.10% 1.30% 1.58%
Team 11 8 0.80% 0.95% 1.15%
Team 12 7 0.70% 0.83% 1.01%
Team 13 6 0.60% 0.71% 0.87%
Team 14 5 0.50% 0.59% 0.73%

In best scenario, we could end with #1 pick but it's pretty hard to believe that we could get that lucky. Seems to me that it's real to expect #3-#5 pick. And then what!? Trade down? Draft Lopez? I'll write some things about top NBA prospects from NCAA in my next post, but think about it... Should we let Mad Dog play big minutes, or keep winning? lol Remember this game? Hilarious! :)

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